Howrah News Service -  Latest news and headlines on Howrah,West Bengal and World: China's food crisis will exacerbate global shortage

China's food crisis will exacerbate global shortage
================================================================================
newsbyte on 09 June, 2008 04:09:21
 
China's rising grain demand is poised to exacerbate the global food crisis over
the next few years.
Having only seven per cent of the world's total farmable land at its disposal,
the country nevertheless has to feed about one-fifth of the earth's population.
But the country still contributes only to a small part to the current worldwide
food crisis.
Rising population
Despite the government's one-child policy, China's population of 1.3 billion
not only steadily increases, but with rising living standards they also consume
more meat, and thus ever more grain is needed as livestock feed.
The country's self-sufficiency policy had already reached its limitations long
ago. Grain stocks that would previously last a whole year have now been reduced
to hold only 30 to 40 per cent of annual production, and the prognosis for the
future is dire.
Lack of water for irrigation
Harvests are decreasing sharply in some parts of the country due to chronic
lack of water for farmland irrigation. Global warming will have an additional
effect and further diminish grain yields drastically.
Groundwater tables in China, the world's largest rice producer, subside
steadily and wells are drying up.
Global warming causes glaciers in the Himalayas to thaw and eventually
disappear faster than anticipated. These glaciers are the main water sources
feeding China's Yellow and Yangtze rivers during the dry season.
"What happens in the flow of these rivers affects the grain harvests,"
explained Brown, adding that some 80 per cent of China's agricultural land
depended on irrigation.
The world still grossly underpriced water as if it was abundant, and the only
option would be to make it more expensive.
"China may well move into the world market for large quantities of grain in the
near future, just like it has done with soybeans," said Lester Brown, founder of
the Earth Policy Institute in Washington DC.
In the 1990s, Brown had triggered upset reactions from China over his book, Who
will feed China?, but today even Chinese scientists consult him for advice on
the country's food crisis.
The expert warned that Chinese grain stocks are now down to a level where they
probably should not drop further without the risk of shortages.
It would be only a matter of years before the country had to buy grain in the
world market.
"If China imports only 10 per cent of its grain it has an enormous impact on
the world market," Brown said.
Rise in ethanol production in the US
"China is contributing, but its contribution at least in the last years is
relatively small compared with the ethanol production in the US," explained
Brown, citing the expansion of bio fuel production as the main reason for the
crisis.
While China uses just under 2 million tons of grain as cattle feed each year,
the United States have in the last two years allocated more than 20 million tons
to ethanol production, about half of the additional grain supply needed
worldwide to have averted the current food crisis.
To solve the situation in the short term, Brown suggested to drop ethanol
production altogether.
"That would make a huge difference, and we can do it quickly, " he said. But in
the long term, new think models and strict measures for climate protection would
be imperative.
The current food crisis was no temporary phenomenon as in earlier decades.
Dwindling global food stocks
The world has consumed for the past seven to eight years more grain it produced
and global stocks were dwindling fast.
"We are in a chronically tight food situation," cautioned Brown.
The gap between supply and demand would make food prices increase further in
the long run.
According to the United Nations, food prices had risen an average of 83 per
cent in the past three years, while wheat alone skyrocketed by 181 per cent.
"It becomes more difficult to rapidly expand production. The days of doubling
or tripling yields are over," said Brown.
Grain harvests would plummet between 2030 and 2050 by up to 10 per cent, the
study said.
"The challenge for us today is to build a new energy economy and do it
quickly," said Brown.
Global cooperation needed
But at a time when global cooperation would be needed most, food scarcity
weakens the political system.
Large grain exporters like Russia and Argentina have already limited their
exports to stabilize prices domestically.
China, meanwhile, is looking to purchase or lease farmland in Myanmar,
Kazakhstan, Russia and Brazil to shore up its own grain production.
India, South Korea, Egypt and Libya follow a similar course and want to secure
their own food situation through bilateral contracts or supply agreements.